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King Hubbert. While you may know that Hubbert is widely credited with accurately predicting the peak Zing - Peak Oil Hypothesis - Dusting It Off U. The history of the scientific study of peak oil dates to the s, when Hubbert, a Shell geophysicist, reported on studies he had undertaken regarding the production rates of oil and gas fields. A peak in oil production, that is the maximum rate of production after which a field, country, or the world as a whole begins to decline is at the core of the peak oil issue.
A country is said to have peaked, or reached peak oil after it becomes apparent that oil production in the region is steadily declining year after year. Oil production in the U. Because of this prediction, Hubbert is widely-regarded among peak oil adherents as a visionary. He has been called an oracle and a prophet. The truth, however, is much more nuanced. Hubbert got a lot of things tremendously wrong, and his much-heralded prediction contains a large caveat of which most people are entirely unaware.
Here is what his paper actually stated. Hubbert estimated that the ultimate potential reserve of the Lower 48 U. Based on that reserve estimate, the 6. That was his base prediction. As shown in the illustration, Hubbert projected a U.
However, note that there is another curve rising above and extending beyond the peak. Nevertheless, if the U. Or to put it another way, his base case at that time was that U. Still, as someone who frequently makes predictions, I will say that his predictions about U. But they were in the ballpark.
Yet when we look at what he had to say about global production and natural gas production, his predictions were way Zing - Peak Oil Hypothesis - Dusting It Off the mark. He arrived at an estimate of the ultimate conventional oil production of the world by comparing a number of estimates.
He settled on an estimate of 1. We now know that this estimate was far too low. In reality, crude oil production in was more than twice as high at about 75 million bpd. Further, while conventional crude oil production did flatten aroundmore than a decade later there is no evidence that it has begun to decline. Overall global production has continued to grow, primarily because of the rise of shale oil production. So this was a big miss. But, his methodology specifies Same Old Saturday Night - Frank Sinatra - The Capitol Years peak and decline.
That is not what we have seen. The longer conventional production holds steady or even modestly increasesthe further off the mark his prediction. In any case, 34 million bpd was not remotely in the ballpark of the production rate in So the cumulative miss over time is huge. By his curve shows production having fallen for 16 years from the peak, when in reality conventional production is up a lot sinceand has advanced somewhat since Using the same methodology he used for oil, he projected a peak in U.
In reality, production in the U. His estimates of coal production follow a similar pattern. He predicted a peak in global coal production of just over 6 billion metric tons per year around the year But the biggest issue was simply the underestimate of reserves.
Globally, by the year the world had already produced about a trillion barrels of conventional oil. But the remaining conventional reserve at that time — 1. Thus, the impact of unconventional oil on global oil supplies was underestimated. What matters is how much is being produced and at what price. The environmental issues are another matter entirely. His work also spawned tremendous awareness about the issue of peak oil and resource depletion in general. The core of the Peak Oil hypothesis is that global oil supplies will become limited by resource exhaustion at some Smartie - D.
Barker* - Harmonica in the not too distant future. I think you can make Nomansland (Davids Song) (Vocal Radio Cut) - Various - 20 Top Hits Aus Den Charts 2/99 pretty strong argument today that global oil production is more likely to become limited by competition from better alternatives, especially once we start properly pricing the embedded cost of CO2 pollution whether through a carbon tax or some other mechanism.
Over the next few decades this Zing - Peak Oil Hypothesis - Dusting It Off to be the more likely scenario, and a lot of oil resources will wind up simply left in the ground due to diminishing demand. In fact, he specifically says that advancements in technology that could Zing - Peak Oil Hypothesis - Dusting It Off a decline in check are unlikely to happen fast enough to matter.
Well the article here was about what Hubbert had to say about peak oil. Great post. I think we are entering an age of relative energy abundance. Look also for ceilings on demand whenever prices get too high.
It will be fascinating to see if fleets of Uber self-driving battery cars emerge…. This says more about the difficulty in making predictions that span decades. Hubbert did a great service by breaking down the fantasy that oil will last for ever.
Meanwhile we march on towards the big crunch. The question is, how far off is it? When is or was Peak OiI? And how quickly will we drop off the other side? What would you say? The mission of R-Squared is to foster civil, objective discussions on energy and environmental issues. Choke Points Beijing is no Boogeyman in Greenland. S Oil Output.
Power Policy Christmas for Energy Industries. Energy Trends Insider. By Robert Rapier on Lonely In The Night - Nazareth - 2XS 16, with 7 responses. Tags: peak oilresource depletion. By pleppik on September 16, at am. This is an interesting analysis, but I think it misses the much larger point.
By Harquebus on September 16, at pm. Peak production can be an undulating plateau. Also, unconventional oil has been produced using debt which, has yet to be repaid. A reckoning is coming. By Robert Rapier on September 16, at pm. By Harquebus on September 21, at am.
By Robert Rapier on September 21, at am. By Benjamin Cole on September 29, at am. By RodT on September 29, at pm. Register or log in now to save your comments and get priority moderation! Comments My wife and I only use ethanol-free fuel in our vehicles and other equipment. We do not feel that Next Gen nuclear has hardly appeared and in By stephen on Book Review: Power Hungry.
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